The business and financial worlds have been rocked by a significant landmark in the oil industry, with gasoline prices hitting heights not seen since 2023. The standard U.S. price for a gallon of gas, as reported by AAA, toppled the scales at an impressive $3.87. This event coincided with Hurricane Lee barreling towards North New England, but experts believe improvements may be on the horizon.
The Market Reacts To Crude Fuel PricesTopping $90
This past week saw U.S. crude oil break the $90 per barrel barrier for the first time since November of the previous year. However, consumers could soon be benefiting from the introduction of winter-grade gasoline, a cheaper variant, provided Hurricane Lee doesn’t add significant disruptions.
Price predictions from industry professionals suggest prices may soon peak. According to Tom Kloza, OPIS’s global head of energy analysis, current gas prices may start to decline, even if crude stays around the $90 per barrel mark. Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates shares this view, estimating gas prices’ slight climb in the next week will be followed by a drop inspired by winter-grade gasoline.
Winter-Grade Gasoline: An East Of The Rockies Phenomenon
Lipow foresees around a $0.10 per gallon reduction in markets to the east of the Rockies. However, he warns that Californian drivers won’t see winter-grade gasoline in their distribution system until November 1st. While gas prices average $5.52 per gallon in California, they are having wider implications.
Rising gasoline prices add to worries about their damaging effects on the wider economy and consumer spendings. As Mike Dickson, head of research at Horizon Investments, points out, concurrent with rising fuel costs, there is a notable slump in consumer sentiment, posting a marked restraint on further spending.
Fuel costs, particularly gasoline, are standing out as primary contributors to an unexpected inflation surge reported in August. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) release states that over half of the monthly overall price inflation can be pinned to gasoline costs.
The Impact: Beyond The Gas Station
Oil-dependent products are also experiencing a price elevator ride. Delta, for instance, has recently issued a revenue warning due to the increased costs of maintenance and jet fuel—it’s now estimating an earnings reduction, which has dropped from an initial forecast of $2.20-$2.50 per share to a buffer zone of $1.85-$2.05. Other big players in the aviation sector, like American, Spirit, United, Southwest, and Alaska Air, have recently done the same.
Crude has been ascending significantly over the past three months. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude futures have experienced rises of approximately $22 per barrel and 30%, respectively. However, Lipow estimates that we can expect prices to exceed $90 per barrel, provided OPEC+ and Saudi Arabia weigh in favor of higher prices to balance their domestic budgets.
Analysts like Michael Tran and Helima Croft from RBC Capital Markets, hypothesize that we could soon be talking about $100 oil per barrel costs soon: a notion that was unfathomable only a short while ago. Recent unilateral production cuts by Saudi Arabia and a reduction of exports by Russia, added to the OPEC+ reductions that ended last year, play a substantial role in these price escalations.
Conclusion: Uncharted Territory or Likely Outcome?
We would do well to remember that the fuel market is always unpredictable and ever-changing. Even as gas prices hit a high point, expert forecasts predict a slump on the horizon—though they also point towards the chance of crude oil reaching the unprecedented $100 per barrel milestone. It appears we may soon be facing a crossroads for the business industry—at least where fuel prices are concerned.
